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Benjamin Cowen - Why This Bitcoin Cycle Feels Different
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Benjamin Cowen - Why This Bitcoin Cycle Feels Different

Secret3 Secret3 May 21, 2025 2 min read
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1. Trends in Bitcoin Dominance Explained

Benjamin emphasized the importance of tracking Bitcoin dominance throughout different market cycles. He noted that Bitcoin pairs didn't start to recover until quantitative tightening ended, suggesting that aligning investments with monetary policy can lead to more favorable outcomes. Benjamin observed significant patterns in Bitcoin dominance, which often peaks when altcoin market capitalization reaches parity with Bitcoin’s, reflecting overall market dynamics.

2. Cautionary Insights on Altcoins

Benjamin shared his past experiences with altcoins, explaining how buying them resulted in losses measured against Bitcoin. He mentioned, "You’ll learn a little bit each cycle," which reflects the necessity for investors to accumulate insights through their experiences. His suggestion was clear: when altcoins rise, they often do so merely as a result of Bitcoin’s upward trend, and he pointed out the persistent decline of altcoins against Bitcoin, advising restraint until their valuations reach more favorable conditions.

3. Observing Economic Indicators

Benjamin expressed that monitoring economic indicators such as the S&P 500 and initial unemployment claims is crucial for evaluating market conditions. He pointed out that maintaining unemployment claims below 300k can prevent instabilities in the market cycle. His conclusion is that a high initial claims rate could lead to significant recessionary pressures, making it essential for investors to stay informed about macroeconomic trends to steer their investment strategies appropriately.

4. The Cyclic Nature of Market Movements

He supports the idea that market cycles tend to repeat every four years, particularly concerning the lows. Benjamin asserted that understanding these cycles allows for deeper insights into potential market behavior and future price movements. This cyclical nature highlights the necessity to factor in both the timing of investments and the consistent developments in the broader economy.

5. Risk Management in Selling Strategies

Benjamin discussed employing a modern portfolio theory approach to managing risk, indicating that while the nature of high-risk levels invites selling portions of a portfolio, he still prefers holding a substantial Bitcoin position. He noted the importance of strategizing sales at high-risk levels, which reflects the need for investors to dynamically adapt their strategies based on market conditions and personal risk tolerance.

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