The recent advancement of President Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill,’ proposing a $5 trillion increase to the US debt ceiling, has led to speculation about its potential impact on Bitcoin. Historical data does not show a reliable correlation between US debt ceiling increases and Bitcoin price increases. Despite expectations that the debt ceiling would be raised, Bitcoin remained steady at around $105,000 without substantial price movements. Critics like Sven Henrich argue that increasing the debt ceiling amidst record deficits contradicts traditional fiscal management practices and follow a trend of relying on modern monetary theory. The focus should shift to how the US Federal Reserve will respond, as interest rates and debt servicing costs play crucial roles. Generally, rising US Treasury yields indicate reduced investor confidence, yet current trends suggest a possible divergence as Bitcoin holds value despite fluctuations in treasury yields. While a rally above $110,000 could coincide with the debt ceiling passage, historical patterns fail to establish a direct relationship between these events.

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