Following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, the likelihood of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has sharply increased according to Polymarket. The probability of a closure by June 30 has jumped to 40%, and by the end of the year, it has risen to 52%. This potential closure could lead to a significant surge in oil prices, potentially reaching $120 to $130 per barrel, which could contribute to stagflation. Notably, approximately 20 million barrels of oil transit the Strait daily, representing 20% of global oil consumption. The cryptocurrency market remains stable, with Bitcoin trading above $100,000 despite the escalating tensions. President Trump confirmed the airstrikes, asserting they destroyed key Iranian nuclear facilities, further heightening concerns about Middle Eastern stability and trade impacts.

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