Morning Minute: Ghost Month Returns - Will Bitcoin Buck the Trend?
As Ghost Month approaches, starting August 23 and lasting until September 20, Bitcoin faces historical headwinds. The seven lunar month is a period when many Asian investors typically refrain from significant financial activity, a superstition that has negatively impacted Bitcoin's performance in the past. Since 2015, the cryptocurrency has averaged a -12% return during Ghost Month, experiencing some of its most significant selloffs in years like 2017 and 2021, when it dropped 39.8% and 23%, respectively. Even in bullish years, Bitcoin saw mid-month declines of 12%-19% before rebounding. Currently, Bitcoin has already declined around 10% from its peak of $124,000 this year. Market dynamics appear unfavorable due to thinning liquidity and sharp declines in trading volumes. Despite the evidence suggesting a detrimental impact during this month, historical rebounds can occur post-Ghost Month, potentially offering buying opportunities for investors willing to weather the storm. The upcoming comment from Powell at Jackson Hole could act as a significant market catalyst, either alleviating fears or exacerbating volatility.
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