XRP is currently facing a critical price point, with speculation about whether it will rise to $4 or drop back to $2. According to traders, there is a 64% chance of XRP shooting to the moon, while the remaining 36% predict a downturn. Following a recent drop of 6.4% to the pivotal $3 mark, the coin's direction now depends on various technical indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearly neutral at 48, suggesting no clear trend, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 28 indicates a strong trend is present. The 50-day exponential moving average is above the 200-day average, signaling a bullish outlook unless a major decline occurs. Whale activity has seen significant token sales, leading to concerns around potential corrections. External factors, such as the end of the SEC litigation against Ripple and a high probability of an XRP ETF approval, could influence the price. Overall, while technical analysis leans towards a bullish scenario, whale selling poses a risk to the upward momentum.

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