Bitcoin's supply on exchanges has dropped below 15% for the first time since 2018, indicating a potential supply shock as institutional demand rises, particularly from exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The percentage of Bitcoin on exchanges has fallen to 14.5%, the lowest since August 2018, suggesting strong buyer demand and decreasing available BTC. This trend often leads to increased investor confidence and long-term holding. Additionally, over-the-counter (OTC) Bitcoin balances have also hit all-time lows, with the cumulative BTC held in known OTC addresses declining by 21% since January. This scarcity across exchanges and OTC desks could amplify future price surges as demand outweighs supply. Bitcoin has remained robust above the critical $100,000 psychological support level due to strong institutional demand and continuous inflows into ETFs, totaling over $4.7 billion in capital in just 15 days. Analysts note that maintaining this support level is crucial, as falling below could lead to significant liquidations in leveraged long positions. However, the likelihood of Bitcoin dropping below $100,000 appears to be decreasing, with optimistic price targets set for the rest of 2025.

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