The June ADP employment report revealed a significant decline in private-sector jobs, with a loss of 33,000 positions against analysts' expectations of an addition of 100,000 jobs. This marked the first negative result since March 2023, continuing a trend of monthly declines since March 2025. Following the report, stocks initially dropped but recovered later due to optimism surrounding a trade agreement announcement between the US and Vietnam. The likelihood of a 25bps interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve increased to 23.8%. The upcoming weekly jobless claims report is projected to show 240,000 first-time filers, which would indicate labor market stability if it meets expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is also expected to report an addition of 110,000 nonfarm payrolls with a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. There is a sense of hope that these figures will align more closely with expectations, despite ongoing market volatility associated with the approaching July Fourth holiday.

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