The US labor market displayed mixed signals in June, with contrasting reports from the ADP and the Department of Labor. The June ADP report indicated a surprising decrease in private-sector payroll of 33,000 jobs, failing to meet the expected rise of 100,000 positions. This marked the first negative print since March 2023, even as the ADP figures have consistently declined since March 2025. Conversely, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a net increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing expectations and aligning closely with the average over the past year. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, although a slight decline in participation was noted. Most of the job growth came from state and local government roles, with healthcare also contributing significantly. Private-sector hiring, however, was noted to be at its weakest point since October. The discrepancies between the ADP and BLS reports may stem from their differing methodologies and reporting timelines, suggesting a cautious approach as summer months bring volatility to labor statistics.

Source 🔗