Bitcoin operates in approximately four-year cycles, with past cycles indicating significant price drops. The 200-week moving average has historically provided reliable support, except during extreme cases like the 2022 collapse due to the FTX fallout. Diaman Partners conducted a Monte Carlo simulation to predict Bitcoin's minimum value by the end of 2026, suggesting that a price drop below $41,000 has only a 5% probability. If the moving average aligns with previous cycles, it could stabilize around $60,000 by late 2026. Alternatively, if Bitcoin experiences sustained growth, the support level could exceed $80,000. The study concludes that while drastic drawdowns are expected to diminish, setting a target price of $260,000 by 2025 is plausible if historical trends hold. However, this forecast is speculative and serves only as an intellectual exercise on Bitcoin's uncertain future.

Source 🔗