Simplicity Group's study analyzed over 50,000 data points related to 40 crypto token launches in early 2025, revealing that token launches depend more on fundamentals than social media engagement. The research found no statistical relationship between social media interactions and token price performance in the first month post-launch. In fact, higher engagement often correlated with lower returns, while projects building awareness prior to their token generation events indicated better long-term performance. Additionally, there was a strong negative correlation between initial market cap (IMC) and price performance; a higher IMC usually results in a price drop one week to a month after launch. Conversely, lower IMCs tended to lead to initial price gains. Initial circulating supply did not significantly impact one-week price performance, suggesting the initial dollar value is more relevant. The report also noted that while trading volumes appeared uncorrelated at first, higher volume retention correlated positively with price performance.

Source đź”—