On August 7, 2025, Bitcoin surged to $116,430, reflecting a solid recovery and renewed optimism in the crypto markets following disappointing jobs data from the U.S. This optimism is bolstered by the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut in September, with market tools indicating a 93.4% probability. Major stock markets are witnessing an upswing, contributing to increased demand for risk assets. Notably, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has dropped significantly, suggesting a potential bullish trend for the cryptocurrency as traders express confidence. Institutional interest is also visible, with the State of Michigan Retirement System indicating an investment in spot ETFs. However, geopolitical risks remain, such as escalating tariffs and ongoing tensions in Ukraine that may impact market stability. In upcoming events, Circle will host a session on a new federal payment stablecoin framework, while various economic indicators will be released globally. On the derivatives front, Bitcoin futures open interest remains strong at $78.5 billion, confirming institutional participation as traders position themselves for possible significant movements in the market. Overall, the current market sentiment leans towards bullishness amid these developments.

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