Bitcoin's current price action is reportedly tracking its historic four-year halving cycle, according to the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. Despite some predictions suggesting that institutional interest may disrupt this pattern, Glassnode noted that indicators from market behavior show signs of the cycle being further along than anticipated. Profit-taking among long-term holders has reached levels comparable to previous market peaks, hinting at a late-cycle scenario. Additionally, demand for Bitcoin appears to be waning, highlighted by significant outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Since peaking at $124,128 on August 14, Bitcoin's value has declined by 8.3%. Speculative positioning in altcoins has surged, indicating traders are exploring riskier investments. Should Bitcoin follow its historical cycle, peak values could materialize by October, similar to past cycles. However, there are contrasting views; some experts argue that growing institutional adoption and increased ETF demand may alter the traditional four-year cycle dynamics, implying Bitcoin could experience an ‘up year’ beyond 2026.

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