Bitcoin analyst PlanC argues that traders predicting a price peak for Bitcoin by the end of 2025 are misinterpreting statistical principles. He explains that believing Bitcoin must peak in Q4 of this year is akin to betting that after three coin flips yielding tails, the next flip should also yield tails. He stresses that past halving cycles do not provide sufficient data to claim a certain peak occurrence. He emphasizes there is no fundamental basis—apart from psychological tendencies—for Bitcoin to peak in Q4, given the changing landscape with Bitcoin treasury companies and increasing investments in US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Despite Q4 historically being a strong quarter for Bitcoin, he warns that if the halving cycle continues, a price decline could commence as soon as October. Debates within the industry reflect varied expectations, with some analysts predicting significant price increases this year, while others foresee a continuation of the bull market into 2026.

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