Analyst James Check claims that Bitcoin's market cycles are not primarily influenced by the four-year halving events but by trends in adoption and market structure. He identifies three distinct cycles: an 'adoption cycle' from 2011 to 2018, an 'adolescence cycle' from 2018 to 2022, and the current 'maturity cycle' starting in 2022, marked by institutional growth and stability. Check's viewpoint contrasts with the traditional belief that halvings create supply shocks leading to bull markets, which have historically peaked the year following halving events. He suggests that liquidity dynamics and factors like dollar liquidity and ETF inflows are driving market phases, indicating a possible extension of the current bullish phase. Other analysts, such as those from Glassnode, propose that the Bitcoin market is entering a late cycle stage, while some predict the four-year cycle may be over due to changes in market behavior.

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