Bitcoin is showing early signs of a significant rally, yet current user activity remains comparatively low, suggesting a ‘HODL’ phase where holders await fresh demand. Recent on-chain data indicates a ‘demand generation’ pattern, akin to the accumulation observed post-Terra/LUNA and FTX collapses—both identifying major market bottoms. Researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted that stablecoin inflows have dropped into negative territory, which could indicate a resurgence of demand. Although Bitcoin holds strong above $100,000, new network activity is considerably lower than previous peaks, hinting at a supply squeeze scenario. Notably, large transactions now make up 96% of exchange flows, often preceding price expansions. Nevertheless, a risk of short-term price corrections exists due to an imbalance of selling pressure against insufficient new buyer demand. The overall situation suggests that Bitcoin’s trajectory will depend on whether new demand can sustain momentum against existing selling, with potential resistance levels around $110,000 looming.

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