In 2026, advanced economies will face a staggering $33 trillion in maturing debt, creating a significant refinancing wall that could drain liquidity and hinder risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Global liquidity is expected to peak in late 2025, a historical precursor to tighter markets, as the current bull market, which began in 2009, may continue until 2028 despite potential volatility. Experts suggest the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle may no longer dominate, as macroeconomic factors increasingly influence its dynamics. The upcoming maturity wall poses a stress test for various assets, with reduced liquidity potentially leading to heightened valuations and volatility pressure on risk-on investments. While current liquidity levels are high, a contraction starting in 2026 could adversely affect Bitcoin, aligning with its bear market phase. Alternatively, if central banks respond to debt pressures with liquidity injections, it might create tailwinds for Bitcoin. Ultimately, the interplay of diverse factors, including debt loads and market cycles, will dictate both Bitcoin and traditional financial markets in the coming years.

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